Texas isn’t likely to catch a break weather-wise, especially in the area known as “Hail Alley.” This week’s storms left enormous amounts of damage in their wake. Scientists suggest that this is just the beginning of huge hail becoming normal as the planet warms. Recent storms resulted in hail ranging from the size of golf balls all the way up to softballs.
Texas isn’t likely to catch a break weather-wise, especially in the area known as “Hail Alley.” This week’s storms left enormous amounts of damage in their wake. Scientists suggest that this is just the beginning of huge hail becoming normal as the planet warms. Recent storms resulted in hail ranging from the size of golf balls all the way up to softballs.
While huge hail isn’t exactly unheard of in Texas, which has seen some as large as 4.25” in diameter, climate scientists believe it’s going to become more frequent. The reason, they say, is that greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, increasing atmospheric temperatures.
We normally associate the worst of severe weather damage in the area with tornadoes. There’s no doubt that the damage those storms leave behind truly is devastating and it’s also much more widely publicized. Hail, however, is sometimes even more costly in terms of damage as it occurs over a broader area and lasts for longer periods of time than tornadoes.
According to John Allen, a climate scientist at Columbia University, “[I]t happens every single year.” Allen studies the impact of climate change on severe weather patterns.
So, how does the warming of our planet impact severe weather, specifically hail, in the Lone Star State. As a source close to this writer suggested, a shot of whiskey may be appropriate about now.
Hail comes from severe thunderstorms with strong updrafts. That is, air that is moving upward at a rapid rate. These updrafts catch rain and push it higher into the storm clouds. At some point, the rain is pushed above the freezing level where it’s supercooled, condenses onto nearby particles like dust and promptly freezes. Hello, hail.
Now for some basic physics: trust me, very basic. The newly-formed hail has mass and so gravity wants to bring it down to earth. The updrafts have other plans and want to keep the hail flying high. This constant up-and-down eventually results in the smaller hail hitting other bits of small hail, as well as raindrops, and the freezing temperatures at that level create larger bits of hail.
At some point in this process, gravity wins (hint: it always does) and the updrafts are no longer powerful enough to keep the mass of the larger hail in the air. This is the part where you run for cover and take that shot.
The more unstable the atmosphere, the stronger the updrafts get. The stronger the updrafts get, the bigger the hail grows. Climate scientists have proven that one result of atmospheric warming is increased capacity for the air to hold more water vapor. This creates the “perfect storm” (pardon the pun) of instability required for more severe storms with greater updrafts.
But, wait! There’s more! According to Allen, a warmer atmosphere means a higher freezing level. This, in turn, means that hail has more warm air to pass through on its way to hit your car, house, etc. According to some studies, smaller hail (defined as that 2” or less in diameter) is less likely to hit anything because it will melt in the larger pocket of warm air. That’s great, right?!
Well, in a way, yes. However, the really big, baseball-sized hail can survive the increased size of the warm air pocket through which it must pass before making your home insurance carrier cringe. On top of which, as though there needed to be more, the increased atmospheric instability and severity of storms is likely to produce more of the larger-sized hail such as slammed San Antonio and Dallas this week.
Allen said there are other factors involved in hail formation and that the research into the impact atmospheric warming will have on severe weather is still in its early stages. Despite that, what has been shown so far is that Texans can expect more large hail and, therefore, more property damage.
Make sure your homeowners’ insurance policies are up to date, my Southern friends. And don’t forget that shot. Chances are, your insurance carrier has already finished the bottle.
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